A drought is worsening in the western parts of the D.C. region, even as regular bouts of rain have somewhat improved dry conditions in the rest of the area.
The hardest-hit areas are mostly west of Fairfax and central Montgomery counties, where the lack of rain has caused crops to wither and prompted concerns about water levels of the Potomac River.
It’s especially dry near the Blue Ridge Mountains and Shenandoah Valley, where the drought is “severe," according to the federal drought monitor. The drought could mute fall colors in this area, a popular destination for leaf-peeping just an hour or two drive from Washington.
On Wednesday, the Maryland Department of Environment issued a drought warning for many of its counties, including parts of Montgomery and Howard. The state is requesting that people continue voluntary restrictions on water use and prepare for the potential of mandatory restrictions should dry conditions persist.
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Some beneficial rain could be on the way, however. A coastal storm is forecast to bring a soaking to much of the area this weekend. Meanwhile, the dryness precedes predicted moderate-to-strong El Niño conditions this winter, which can bring considerable rain and snow to the Mid-Atlantic region.
The dry conditions, by the numbers
The immediate D.C. area has seen about 4 to 8 inches less rain than normal in 2023. In the areas experiencing drought to the west, the deficit increases to about a foot.
Here are some of the specific rainfall deficits so far this year:
- Reagan National Airport: 6.5 inches
- Dulles International Airport: 8.5 inches
- Damascus, Hagerstown and Martinsburg: 10 to 13 inches.
Severe drought, or a level 3 of 5 on the federal drought monitor scale, covers much of Loudoun County, before running southwest along the Blue Ridge and through the Shenandoah Valley.
A broader level 2 of 5 moderate drought stretches from around Lexington, Va., to near Gettysburg in southern Pennsylvania.
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The western part of the Beltway region is considered “abnormally dry" by the drought monitor, which is one level from drought. This dryness first emerged during March, before reaching moderate drought levels in May. The drought continued through most of the summer before easing slightly in September.
Rain has fallen somewhat more regularly in recent weeks in the immediate D.C. area. The three months ending Monday saw about 1 to 5 inches more rain than normal in the area. However, dry conditions have persisted to the west.
Drought impacts
The lack of rain through late August was enough to prompt water managers along the Potomac River to initiate drought operations. They were recently suspended because median water flows returned to normal, according to Michael Nardolilli of the Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin.
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Earlier this month, some farms in Loudoun County reported crop yields down by 40 percent.
Autumn colors may be the drought’s next victim.
Fall colors are beginning to emerge in some of the highest terrain in western Virginia, but they probably won’t be as vibrant this year once they reach peak, according to the Foliage Report, a website that monitors foliage across the nation.
Evan Fisher, a meteorologist for the Explore Fall website, said in an email that the stress from drought also causes trees to drop their leaves earlier but at different times, depending on the species.
Drought “can really shake things up and result in extremely variable timing, so I suspect peak color will not be well synchronized," he said.
Because they’ve received more water, trees are probably less stressed closer to Washington compared to areas farther west.
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Fisher said he expects a more normal fall color season nearer the city but probably somewhat later than average because of mild temperatures.
A change in the air?
The dry weather regime could be a distant memory by the spring. Moderate to strong El Niño conditions are expected to prevail this winter, which tend to deliver an active southern jet stream to the United States that sends moisture toward the Mid-Atlantic states.
However, a strong El Niño winter doesn’t guarantee heavy precipitation, and drought conditions may be difficult to shake before that.
The eight strong El Niño fall and winter periods since 1950 offer clues as to what might lie ahead.
Between October and December, strong El Niños have leaned drier than normal. Among strong El Niño years, only October of 1997 was wetter than average, and November and December precipitation was highly variable.
After December, moderate-to-strong El Niño winters do tend to become wetter, but February has been the only month that is reliably wetter than normal.
In the meantime, more than an inch of rain could fall this weekend, which would be a step in the right direction toward closing rainfall deficits across the region.
Justin Wm. Moyer and Jason Samenow contributed to this report.
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