published on August 26, 2024 in Informative Details

Why a GOP pollster is watching Harriss impact in the Midwest

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In today’s edition … the Obamas endorse Harris ... Harris embarks on sprint to find a running mate … but first …

Whit Ayres, on the Democratic shake up

Nine questions for... Republican pollster Whit Ayres. Every several weeks until the election we will speak with a pollster about what the polls are saying about the presidential race. This week we chatted with Ayers, founder and president of North Star Opinion Research, about how the presidential race has changed with Vice President Kamala Harris now likely to be the Democratic presidential nominee.

What does the margin between the presidential candidates look like after the shake up at the top of the ticket?

The initial data takes us back to the campaign before Joe Biden’s disastrous debate meltdown where the national polls were very close but Donald Trump had a significant lead in the Sunbelt swing states and a modest lead in the Upper Midwest swing states.

There’s no evidence, but there’s a reasonable assumption that Kamala Harris could do better among African American and Hispanic voters but probably worse among older, blue collar, White voters that make up so many of the voters in the upper Midwest. So it’s reasonable to assume, I think, the Sunbelt states will get closer but you balance that with the upper Midwest states getting weaker for her than Joe Biden.

So big picture you’re saying the race hasn’t fundamentally changed yet?

I don’t think you could say that with the elimination of an 81-year-old incumbent president. But in a polarized country, you’re still likely to have a very close race. Trump won 47 percent [of the vote] in 2020. The number to watch is whether Donald Trump can break through that 47 percent. If he does, that changes things pretty significantly. If not, then we’re likely to have an election where both candidates are somewhere in the mid 40′s and the election is decided by close margins in the swing states.

I do think that Kamala Harris inherits many of the negative views of the Biden-Harris administration on inflation, economy taxes, Gaza, and especially the most negative issue with the way she was put in charge of illegal immigration. So she’s got some challenges ahead, separating herself from the Biden administration in a way that doesn’t antagonize people who strongly supported Joe Biden.

Does Kamala Harris’s candidacy exacerbate or highlight any weaknesses of Donald Trump?

It depends upon how he reacts. If he follows the examples of some of the irresponsible members of Congress and starts taking shots at her race and her gender and talking about a DEI candidate, that’s going to backfire. On the other hand, if he focuses on policy differences and calls her a San Francisco liberal who wants to ban fracking, ban offshore drilling and eliminate private health insurance, then I think he will be helped by the Kamala candidacy.

There was a big concern about apathy among the Democratic base with Biden and the double haters. Are Democrats more enthusiastic now?

There’s no question that that helps the Democratic ticket up and down the ballot if Democrats are fired up and enthusiastic about voting.

The real question in my mind is how Kamala Harris fares in the heat of an intense presidential campaign. Her last presidential campaign in 2019-2020 was an unmitigated disaster, beset by staff infighting and a confused message that caused the campaign to collapse before it ever got started. So the hope of Democrats must be that she is a whole lot better than she has been in the past.

So there’s a lot of room for her to do better and a lot of room for her to do worse?

Exactly. And it all comes down to how she can handle the pressure of a very, very intense presidential campaign.

Is there any sense of what young voters, who seemed to be Trump curious before Biden dropped out, think about Harris or is it too early to tell?

It’s really too early to tell.

Was JD Vance the right choice for Trump to help him win?

We’ll see how JD Vance performs on the stump, but it was obviously a very confident Donald Trump who chose JD Vance to double down on the MAGA voters as opposed to reaching out to more traditional Republicans with a different choice.

Did Harris eviscerate the traditional post-convention bump for Republicans?

I think it’s the post-convention, post-assassination bump that was modest but real. And now the excitement about Kamala Harris, or more precisely, the excitement about not having Joe Biden, has given the Democrats a little bump. But again, this is all about how it plays out over the next 100 or so days. We have a very different kind of race, even though many of the fundamentals remain unchanged. We have a very different kind of race, because we have a very different Democratic candidate.

What are you going to be watching over the next few weeks?

I’m going to be looking at the significant number of African American and Hispanic voters who at this point say they’re likely to vote for Donald Trump — somewhere in the 30s, which would be historically high, except for George W. Bush’s 44 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2004. I’m going to be looking to see if they stick with Donald Trump, or if they go back to Kamala Harris.

I’m going to be interested to see how the blue-collar Whites in the Upper Midwest react to her candidacy. Because the White voters held fairly stable for Joe Biden, it was weakness in the non-White vote that caused the Upper Midwest to be so close.

It’s also going to be fascinating to see if Donald Trump can break through that 47 percent, which has been his ceiling up to this point. That will indicate a significant change in the fundamentals of the race.

On the Hill

‘Armor bearers:’ Black women in Congress mobilize to boost Harris

When then-Sen. Kamala D. Harris (D-Calif.) called Rep. Frederica S. Wilson (D-Fla.) in January 2019 to tell her she planned to run for president, the veteran Florida lawmaker with a penchant for festive headgear started screaming with excitement before Harris could finish her sentence.

Her enthusiasm startled Harris on the other line.

But as soon as Wilson hung up, another call came in — this time, from Joe Biden. When Wilson didn’t pick up — “I knew what he was going to ask,” the congresswoman explained — Biden then texted her, Marianna reports with our colleague Jacqueline Alemany.

"I’m so sorry,” Wilson, sporting a hot pink pantsuit and bedazzled cowboy hat this week on Capitol Hill, recalled texting Biden back at the time. “I love you. You know that, but I have pledged my support to my sorority sister and friend Kamala Harris, and maybe one day, you, too.”

Five years later, Biden did just that — endorsing Harris, now his vice president, to succeed him. And so have most of the 30 Black women in Congress, who now stand as something of a national firewall for her candidacy with Harris poised to become the first Black woman to lead a major party ticket and competing to become the country’s first Black female president.

They are in both a celebratory and get-down-to-business mood, sporting pink and green — the colors of Alpha Kappa Alpha, Harris’s college sorority — in the Capitol halls; privately pressing holdout colleagues to endorse Harris, and preparing to hit the trail and speak out against the racist and sexist attacks they, too, have been the target of.

Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Ga.) referred to Black women in Congress as Harris’s “armor bearers.” And Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.) described her congressional sorority as a “shield of protection,” explaining she considered herself a part of Harris’s “truth squad” against challenges to the vice president’s credentials and experience.

“As a Black woman, especially, I know what she’s going to have to deal with,” said Lee. “And we’re communicating that to everyone.”

Black female lawmakers also made clear that they expect others to uplift and amplify Harris, too. After more than 40,000 people surprisingly joined a Zoom meeting hosted by the collective Win With Black Women hours after Biden endorsed Harris on Sunday, raising $1.6 million, over 20,000 Black men rallied the following night to tout Harris’s record. Soon enough, Shannon Watts, the founder of Moms Demand Action, organized a virtual meeting calling on White women to show up for Harris.

“It is not just the responsibility of the Black community to defend this woman. ... We have a collective responsibility to tell allies to step up and fight for her because she’s fighting for all of us,” said Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D-Calif.).

The campaign

Harris embarks on sprint to find Democratic running mate

Harris is in a two-week sprint to lock in a running mate in “a search that suddenly elevates the potential political assets — and vulnerabilities — of the Democratic Party’s bench,” our colleagues Patrick Svitek and Tyler Pager report. The process officially got underway Tuesday, and Harris plans to make a decision by Aug. 7.

“Harris is considering roughly a dozen potential vice-presidential candidates, though allies say three have risen to the top: Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D), Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) and North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D),” they write. “The allies, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a confidential process, cautioned that the process is in its early stages and that Harris’s aides are still mulling an expansive group of contenders.”

Tyler also reports with Toluse Olorunnipa that former president Barack Obama and first lady Michelle Obama have endorsed Harris, in a video posted on social media that shows the Obamas calling Harris to inform her of their endorsement.
“We called to say Michelle and I couldn’t be prouder to endorse you and do everything we can to get you through this election and into the Oval Office,” the former president says to Harris.

Democratic political group to donors: We will win the House

House Majority PAC, the super PAC tasked with electing Democrats to the House, has sent an optimistic memo to its donors asking them to “double down” in the final stretch of the election, as Democrats have a “clear path” to winning the majority.

The memo, provided to the Early, is the latest outlook for House Democrats since Biden stepped aside and endorsed Harris.

It argues that blue states of New York, California and Oregon present opportunities to flip seats. “We will be on offense in territory that is extremely receptive to our candidates and their message,” the memo says.

Democrats must net four seats to take the majority.

The memo points to New York’s special election last year as a model. In that race, Rep. Tom Suozzi beat the Republican candidate to flip that seat by going on the offense on immigration and painting Republicans as extremists on abortion.

“The Democratic message is popular, and when voters are able to hear about it, we win,” the memo says.

Republicans, obviously, would disagree. Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, told us last week that they’ll pick up seats.

"So there’s 35 districts out of 435 that won by five points or less. That’s very few swing seats. So it’s not gonna be a big number, but but I’m confident we’re gonna pick up seats.

The Media

Must-reads from The Post:

A Trump shark’s tale: Whether to be eaten or electrocuted. By Ashley Parker.

New York prosecutor files opposition to reversing Trump’s conviction. By Shayna Jacobs.

Trump botches Kamala Harris’s first name, again and again and again. By Meryl Kornfield.

Justice Kagan calls for a way to enforce Supreme Court ethics code. By Ann E. Marimow.

Youngkin appoints two more to education board, including Scalia daughter. By Karina Elwood.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom orders homeless camps cleared. By Reis Thebault and Molly Hennessy-Fiske.

Viral

PK, we have a word-count we have to adhere to.

PSA: The House is not taking "August recess".

That would suggest a 1-month break. When gavel falls on this vote, the chamber will not return for legislative action until the night of Sept. 9.

That's 46 full days, plus a few hours, of recess.

Late July/Aug/early Sept Recess?

— Paul Kane (@pkcapitol) July 25, 2024

Thanks for reading. You can follow Leigh Ann and Marianna on X: @LACaldwellDC and @MariannaReports.

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